International travel to the United States was on track for another strong year this year, but three months in, the sector is showing worrisome trends for the travel industry.
Tourism Economics, a travel forecasting company, has revised its annual outlook for international visitors and is now predicting a 9.4% decline in 2025, led by a 20.2% decline in visitors from Canada. That differs sharply from the 8.8% gain in international arrivals the organization was predicting as recently as December 2024.
“March 2025 data reveals the U.S. is poised to experience a significant decline in inbound travel this year, pushing the full recovery of international arrivals to 2029,” the company said.
Tourism Economics is forecasting that international visitor spending in the U.S. will decline 5%, a loss of $9 billion in spending this year alone.
The forecasting company said the declines are attributable to the global fallout from the intensified “America First” stance, although later Easter timing also contributed. The March data reflect foreign visitor patterns before the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.
“Policies and pronouncements from the Trump administration have contributed to a growing wave of negative sentiment toward the U.S. among potential international travelers,” the company said in an April 11 research briefing. “Heightened border security measures and visible immigration enforcement actions are amplifying concerns. These factors, combined with a strong U.S. dollar, are creating additional barriers for those considering travel to the U.S.
During the April 15 webinar from the organization titled “Trump & the Travel Industry,” company president Adam Sacks warned of long-term impacts. “Our pre-inauguration forecast expected international travel to nearly fully recover in 2025 to 2019 levels. We’re now pushing that out to 2029,” Sacks reportedly said on the webinar. “Now we’re looking at a full 10 years between pre-pandemic and what will be full recovery. And, of course, that comes with significant economic losses.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio fueled the fire this week when he wrote an opinion piece for Fox News that signaled the administration’s disregard for international visitors.
“Visiting America is not an entitlement. It is a privilege extended to those who respect our laws and values,” Rubio wrote. He continued: “We expect — and the law requires — all visa holders to demonstrate their eligibility every day their visa is valid. This includes respecting our laws, behaving appropriately according to their visa type, and continuing to meet these standards throughout their stay in our country.”
Earlier this month, the National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures showing visits to the U.S. from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared to the same month last year. The figures did not include arrivals from Canada or land crossings from Mexico. Air travel from Mexico dropped 23%.
Canadian Crisis
Travel between the U.S. and Canada is expected to be particularly hard hit given the inflammatory statements made by Trump and administration officials regarding Canada’s future autonomy. Airlines are cutting back on flights between the U.S. and Canada as demand weakens, OAG reported.
OAG Chief Analyst John Grant compared the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on March 3 and those filed on March 24, and noted a concerning trend.
More than 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October. The most noticeable cuts are in July and August – the two peak summer season months – where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%, Grant wrote.
Passenger bookings on Canada – U.S. routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year, OAG reported.
“Despite airline schedule changes and capacity being redirected to other markets, a more troubling trend emerges from forward demand data: future flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. have collapsed,” Grant wrote in a blog post. “Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we’ve compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”
